How Toronto's housing market just went from "high-risk" to "moderate"

by Karim Barbary

For the first time since 2015, Toronto’s housing market vulnerability moved from “high risk” to “moderate” according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

The federal housing agency reports the narrowing risk for Toronto real estate comes as:

  • Home prices & their rate of appreciation ease,
  • Inflation-adjusted disposable income growth, and
  • the overall population growth.

The Housing Market Assessment (HMA) report concludes the results are more in line with housing market fundamentals.

CMHC defines vulnerability as "imbalances in the housing market". The rating takes into account overheating, price acceleration, overvaluation and overbuilding to measure vulnerability.  Here is a comparison chart from the HMA:

“The [housing] imbalances were more acute a year ago than they are today,” CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said in an interview. "We’re seeing some healthy adjustments in larger cities that had been especially vulnerable in recent years."

To learn more about the latest assessment visit CMHC. You can also read the full Housing Market Assessment for Canada here.